India’s October Exports Increase 10% YoY. Start of Strong Wintercrop or Export Push Before Duty Ruling?

In October 2024, India exported 70,508 MT of shrimp, surpassing the previous all-time October record of 2021 and 10% over October 2023. The question is whether this was the start of a strong winter crop amidst Christmas shipments or a temporary push in exports due to the final rulings in the duty cases in the US, which concluded in October. With October’s exports included, the year total has reached 597,642 MT, at par with 2023 and just 3% behind the record year 2021. 

Some details (all growth rates are year-over-year):

• HS03061720 (raw L. vannamei)
  • Total:
    • October 2024: 48,586 MT = +5%
    • Year-total: 465,445 MT = -1%
  • Markets (top 3):
    • October
      • The US: 21,816 MT = +8%
      • China: 9,090 MT = +13%
      • EU: 4,218 MT = +16%
    • Year-total
      • The US: 199,787 MT = +3%
      • China: 100,973 MT = -2%
      • EU: 37,801 MT = +8%
• HS03061740 (raw P. monodon)
  • Total:
    • October 2024: 8,283 MT = +52%
    • Year-total: 31,342 MT = +13%
  • Markets (top 3):
    • October
      • China: 3,882 MT = +47%
      • EU: 1,459 = +62%
      • The US: 1,018 MT = +115%
    • Year-total
      • China: 9,271 MT = -3%
      • EU: 6,442 MT = +35%
      • The US: 5,100 = 72% 
• HS03061790 (wild-caught)
  • Total:
    • October 2024: 6,340 MT = +5%
    • Year-total: 48,335 MT = -2%
  • Markets (top 3)
    • October:
      • EU: 3,048 MT = +31%
      • Japan: 732 MT = +17%
      • China: 715 MT = -41%
    • Year-total
      • EU: 20,401 MT = +16%
      • Japan: 8,090 MT = -6%
      • China: 3,728 MT = -47%
• HS160521/29 (value-added)
  • Total
    • October 2024: 7,299 MT = +17%
    • Year-total: 52,520 MT = +3%
  • Markets (top 3)
    • October:
      • US: 6,111 MT = +8%
      • Canada: 559 MT = -7%
      • EU: 323 MT = +3%
    • Year-total:
      • US: 42,887 MT = +2%
      • Canada: 4,060 MT = +13%
      • EU: 3,140 MT = +6%