Ecuador’s exports in November recorded 118,001 MT, a 20% year-over-year increase. However, according to Gabriel Luna, one should not consider this an actual upward trend. It’s, at least to some extent, because boats in Ecuador leave the port of Guayaquil on Friday, and this year, Friday was November and not October. One should, therefore, better look at the average of the past two months, which reached 204,072 MT, an increase of 4% year over year. This is more in line with the reality that exports are only slightly up.
Let’s look at the data per market in some more detail:
- China:
- November 2024: 70,795 MT = +26% YoY
- October and November 2024: 116,251 MT = +7% YoY
- Year-Total 2024: 606,593 MT = -8% YoY
- USA:
- November 2024: 19,057 MT = +15% YoY
- October and November 2024: 32,438 MT = -6% YoY
- Year-Total 2024: 197,609 MT = +5% YoY
- EU:
- November 2024: 16,636 MT = +20% YoY
- October and November 2024: 33,970 MT = +11% YoY
- Year-Total 2024: 186,258 MT = +13% YoY
In the EU, the import landscape is very diverse. In 2024, exports to Spain (at 60,954 MT, still by far the largest market for Ecuador in the EU) were flat, and exports to Belgium (last year, the fourth largest market for Ecuador in the EU) dropped by 58%. On the other hand, exports to France increased by 27% to 37,970 MT, and exports to the Netherlands increased by 37% to 12,311 MT. Exports to Lithuania exploded by 325% and reached 12,463 MT. Most of these dynamics are due to internal EU trade route changes and do not reflect actual changes in demand and supply. To better understand that, we should also look at intra-EU trade, which we will do in another Shrimp Byte. For now, 13% growth for the entire EU is the best indicator of the growth of demand in the EU.
Average export prices again saw a substantial increase in November. Exceeding $5 ($5.03/kg) for China (mainly HOSO) for the first time since May 2023. Although less steep, the average export value to Spain (mainly HOSO) increased and almost reached $5 ($4.96), the highest value since July 2023. The average export price to the USA (mainly HLSO EZP) increased and reached $6.71.
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